Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TLThe Last Darkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Tusksignature
marblue · 16 games
Mirana
marblue · 10 games
Disruptor
Tz. · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Molasses · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
GodKing · 8 games
Snapfire
Molasses · 8 games
Treant Protector
Tz. · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tz. · 7 games
The Last Dark
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Echo · 5 games
Silencer
strawberry · 4 games
Void Spirit
poyoyo · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Shining · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Echo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 487 bans
Techies
573 picks · 617 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1096 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1223 bans
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1040 bans
Enchantress
462 picks · 675 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 914 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% The Last Dark
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% The Last Dark
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:36
Big Brain 49%The Last Dark 51%
The model gave 51% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidGodKing
Morphlingpoyoyo
Queen of PainSakata
Primal BeastEcho
Windrangercsj
TidehunterShining
TechiesTz.
Batriderstrawberry
Nyx Assassinomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction correct5:30
Big Brain 47%The Last Dark 53%
The model gave 53% on The Last Dark — the game was taken by The Last Dark in 21:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaGodKing
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
EarthshakerSakata
Primal BeastEcho
Tidehuntercsj
BroodmotherShining
Spirit Breakeromoxiloyi
Venomancerstrawberry
PugnaTz.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Last Dark · 54%
Series resultThe Last Dark 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2