European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs predictionBBBikini Bottomloss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bikini Bottom
Bounty Hunteroften banned
QBFY · 3 games
Jakirooften banned
aik · 3 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 3 games
Ringmaster
aik · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rincyq · 2 games
Tusk
QBFY · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
aik · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 1 game
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
572 picks · 801 bans
Muerta
444 picks · 290 bans
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 823 bans
Phoenix
410 picks · 638 bans
Bristleback
408 picks · 858 bans
Clockwerk
382 picks · 337 bans
Magnus
379 picks · 1004 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bikini Bottom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Bikini Bottom 46%4Pirates 54%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyerряф^^
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
Doomrincyq
UrsaOtaker
Dark SeerfortniteMan
Kunkkaмистер мораль
Techiesaik
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Dark Willowxsvampire
Ringmasterariel
Game 2prediction missed61:77
Bikini Bottom 46%4Pirates 54%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Bikini Bottom in 1:59:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kingrincyq
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Tinkerряф^^
TerrorbladeOtaker
Sand KingfortniteMan
Venomancerariel
Earthshakerxsvampire
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Ringmasteraik
Slardarмистер мораль
Game 3prediction correct23:31
Bikini Bottom 45%4Pirates 55%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 52:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassinrincyq
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Kunkkaряф^^
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
SlardarfortniteMan
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Earthshakerxsvampire
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
Techiesaik
Ringmasterariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 59%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3