Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDdai dream teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Sonic · 1 game
Pugna
Fayde · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
Shoe · 1 game
dai dream team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
256 picks · 386 bans
Mars
255 picks · 355 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 586 bans
Bane
222 picks · 152 bans
Void Spirit
217 picks · 252 bans
Lion
215 picks · 100 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 258 bans
Lina
211 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% dai dream team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:40
Black Ice eSports 50%dai dream team 50%
The model gave 50% on dai dream team — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 34:52.
Game 2prediction missed22:27
Black Ice eSports 50%dai dream team 50%
The model gave 50% on dai dream team — the game was taken by Black Ice eSports in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoritedai dream team · 50%
Series resultBlack Ice eSports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2