Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Ice eSportsloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Magnuswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Ice eSports
Bane
Sonic · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Sonic · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Lich
Shoe · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Shoe · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Team Magnus
Sand Kingoften banned
Mark · 5 games
Clockwerk
Chen · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
txhyoo1 · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Jack · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
Disruptor
Chen · 2 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
Sakata Gintoki · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Jack · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 377 bans
Tidehunter
264 picks · 384 bans
Monkey King
258 picks · 610 bans
Bane
232 picks · 169 bans
Lina
216 picks · 468 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 259 bans
Lion
213 picks · 101 bans
Weaver
208 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Black Ice eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 52%
Series resultTeam Magnus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect