The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Black pizzaSloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4A4 amigoswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black pizzaS
No games played over 6 months.
4 amigos
Mirana
albinozebra · 4 games
Puckoften banned
RCY · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Clinkz
Double King · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
RCY · 3 games
Axeoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
488 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 723 bans
Centaur Warrunner
437 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
406 picks · 757 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 1036 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Black pizzaS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% 4 amigos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:39
Black pizzaS 31%4 amigos 69%
The model gave 69% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 27:16.
Game 2prediction correct28:11
Black pizzaS 31%4 amigos 69%
The model gave 69% on 4 amigos — the game was taken by 4 amigos in 15:53.
Model check result
Model favorite4 amigos · 69%
Series result4 amigos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2