The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBSBlack Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Estar Backswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Black Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Estar Backs
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
Riki
Michael · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
480 picks · 444 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 538 bans
Ringmaster
442 picks · 222 bans
Terrorblade
347 picks · 661 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 452 bans
Ancient Apparition
297 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 233 bans
Windranger
284 picks · 86 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:38
Black Submarine 34%Estar Backs 66%
The model gave 66% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArgius
WeaverbsK7-
SniperS1RENM
Naga SirenPrada
Game 2prediction correct
Black Submarine 23%Estar Backs 77%
The model gave 77% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 77%
Series resultEstar Backs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2