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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 8 games
38%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Jhocam · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Varizh · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Jhocam · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
477 picks · 509 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 216 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 669 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
361 picks · 617 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
336 picks · 709 bans
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 765 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
314 picks · 325 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 649 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
Blacklist International 56%Army Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 1:02:36.
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Blacklist International 56%Army Geniuses 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 56%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2