DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
378 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
376 picks · 610 bans
Mars
367 picks · 568 bans
Techies
366 picks · 291 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 719 bans
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 339 bans
Hoodwink
330 picks · 196 bans
Tiny
330 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:3
Blacklist International 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:31.
Game 2prediction correct27:11
Blacklist International 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 52%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2