?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Bleed Esports

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 381 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 430 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
215 picks · 545 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
192 picks · 169 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total66% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:10
Blacklist International 66%Bleed Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 38:07.
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Blacklist International 66%Bleed Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 29:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 66%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2