PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BBruv123loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Hoodwinkoften banned
Tims · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 4 games
Bruv123
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Palos · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Se · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 365 bans
Hoodwink
421 picks · 459 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 838 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 867 bans
Phoenix
371 picks · 765 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 533 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 611 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 70%
Hero pool strength55% Bruv123
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:28
Blacklist International 56%Bruv123 44%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 34:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNatsumi
GyrocopterPalos
Ember SpiritMac
PangolierBob
EnigmaRaven
Vengeful Spiritseimei
JakiroJaunuel
EnchantressSe
Nyx AssassinTims
Game 2prediction correct34:15
Blacklist International 55%Bruv123 45%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNatsumi
AlchemistPalos
Ember SpiritMac
LinaBob
Centaur WarrunnerRaven
Pangolierseimei
SnapfireTims
EnchantressSe
JakiroJaunuel
Game 3prediction correct44:24
Blacklist International 55%Bruv123 45%
The model gave 55% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 49:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritMac
BloodseekerPalos
WeaverNatsumi
Beastmasterseimei
HoodwinkTims
Ember SpiritBob
PangolierRaven
EnchantressSe
JakiroJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 64%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3