Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Hoodwink
Tims · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jaunuel · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Tims · 2 games
Entity
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 437 bans
Weaver
313 picks · 524 bans
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 404 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 560 bans
Crystal Maiden
294 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 65%
Hero pool strength66% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:28
Blacklist International 22%Entity 78%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 25:38.
Game 2prediction correct15:43
Blacklist International 22%Entity 78%
The model gave 78% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 31:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 78%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2