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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
cml · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Bob · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 456 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
241 picks · 218 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
239 picks · 131 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
232 picks · 669 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
229 picks · 324 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total67% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Blacklist International 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 41:13.
Game 2prediction missed35:24
Blacklist International 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 37:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 67%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2