Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Geek Fam
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 15 games
Snapfire
NARMAN · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
ace12 · 11 games
Tusksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 8 games
Marcisignature
Hishge · 8 games
Miranasignature
Roddgeee · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
400 picks · 398 bans
Tiny
368 picks · 365 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 246 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 294 bans
Treant Protector
233 picks · 280 bans
Snapfire
225 picks · 118 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 145 bans
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:12
Blacklist International 50%Geek Fam 50%
The model gave 50% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 42:29.
Game 2prediction missed31:22
Blacklist International 50%Geek Fam 50%
The model gave 50% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 1:13:47.
Game 3prediction missed31:20
Blacklist International 50%Geek Fam 50%
The model gave 50% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 1:17:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 50%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3