PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 6 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
Silencer
Se · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
416 picks · 671 bans
Lion
392 picks · 360 bans
Mars
392 picks · 630 bans
Techies
389 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
372 picks · 818 bans
Tiny
372 picks · 442 bans
Vengeful Spirit
357 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:26
Blacklist International 68%IHC Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 45:20.
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Blacklist International 68%IHC Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 68%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2