Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 7 games
Dark Willow
ace12 · 5 games
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
423 · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 658 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 372 bans
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 571 bans
Batrider
401 picks · 712 bans
Rubick
370 picks · 160 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
333 picks · 944 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Blacklist International 70%IHC Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 44:46.
Game 2prediction missed28:11
Blacklist International 70%IHC Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 27:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 70%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2