ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAG.Indonesialoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
MAG.Indonesia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 438 bans
Phoenix
275 picks · 412 bans
Grimstroke
261 picks · 444 bans
Lion
230 picks · 211 bans
Tusk
229 picks · 214 bans
Nature's Prophet
227 picks · 642 bans
Vengeful Spirit
225 picks · 122 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:15
Blacklist International 84%MAG.Indonesia 16%
The model gave 84% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 36:23.
Game 2prediction missed23:47
Blacklist International 84%MAG.Indonesia 16%
The model gave 84% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by MAG.Indonesia in 42:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 84%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2