PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 1:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SPSF Pos 4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
Hoodwinkoften banned
Tims · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Jaunuel · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
SF Pos 4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
404 picks · 446 bans
Rubick
401 picks · 339 bans
Weaver
382 picks · 822 bans
Tiny
376 picks · 872 bans
Phoenix
356 picks · 732 bans
Pangolier
330 picks · 510 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 496 bans
Dark Seer
293 picks · 673 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blacklist International 77%SF Pos 4 23%
The model gave 77% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 77%
Series resultBlacklist International 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1