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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 2 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Gabbi · 2 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 1 game
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 1 game
100%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 638 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 372 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 434 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 520 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 113 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 563 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Blacklist International
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
Blacklist International 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
50% · 116 games56% · 85 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Puck
PuckAbed
51% · 196 games50% · 155 games
TimbersawNoticed
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerGabbi
50% · 183 games52% · 156 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixJaunuel
46% · 199 games54% · 219 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerTims
46% · 76 games44% · 155 games
HoodwinkFng
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Blacklist International 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
54% · 28 games49% · 170 games
Templar AssassinSquad1x
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGabbi
46% · 102 games52% · 73 games
SlarkKiritych
Slark
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
53% · 145 games44% · 78 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
46% · 141 game53% · 59 games
Spirit BreakerAntares
Spirit Breaker
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
57% · 161 game49% · 197 games
EnchantressFng
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 50%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2