DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blade breakersloss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blade breakers
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Ogre Magi
FeelinG · 2 games
Phoenix
Accel · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
Hokori
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 8 games
Muerta
Genek · 7 games
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Ogre Magisignature
Gardick · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Gardick · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
397 picks · 499 bans
Muerta
377 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 402 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 555 bans
Batrider
322 picks · 388 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 725 bans
Lion
313 picks · 149 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 264 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 35%
Hero pool strength51% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Blade breakers 17%Hokori 83%
The model gave 83% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori.
Game 2prediction missed24:24
Blade breakers 30%Hokori 70%
The model gave 70% on Hokori — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingbsK7-
PangolierDarkMago
Primal Beastblessed kid
Phantom LancerLumière
ChenAccel
BristlebackFCR
51% · 256 games
BatriderGenek
48% · 109 games
PugnaGardick
Game 3prediction correct11:32
Blade breakers 31%Hokori 69%
The model gave 69% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerbsK7-
MorphlingLumière
Phoenixblessed kid
TinyDarkMago
Elder TitanAccel
MagnusFCR
46% · 117 games
EnchantressGardick
43% · 110 games
BatriderGenek
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 83%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3