ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blade breakersloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Infinity Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blade breakers
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Phoenix
Accel · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 1 game
Lich
Accel · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Terrorblade
Cara · 1 game
Infinity Esports
Disruptor
Panda · 11 games
Hoodwink
Kiri · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 7 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Costabile · 7 games
Marci
Hyko · 7 games
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
Underlord
kendallx · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
458 picks · 614 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
Luna
334 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 603 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 353 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:48
Blade breakers 31%Infinity Esports 69%
The model gave 69% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendbsK7-
Dragon KnightCostabile
TimbersawÑengoflow KELOKE
DoomFCR
MarsCara
Earth SpiritPiPi
Ogre MagiFeelinG
EnchantressStingeR
Game 2prediction correct12:31
Blade breakers 30%Infinity Esports 70%
The model gave 70% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 27:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendbsK7-
MorphlingCostabile
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
BroodmotherFCR
Primal BeastCara
PangolierPiPi
Ogre MagiFeelinG
Crystal MaidenStingeR
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 85%
Series resultInfinity Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2