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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kuku · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Whitemon · 10 games
60%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Xepher · 10 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Topson · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kuku · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
PlayHard · 9 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Xepher · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Topson · 8 games
63%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 20 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
woMy · 12 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
woMy · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
732 picks · 463 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 569 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 450 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 379 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
407 picks · 569 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 250 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 594 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 726 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 82%
Hero pool strength54% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:39
Bleed Esports 46%Army Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingJaCkky
52% · 142 games57% · 86 games
Templar AssassinYowe
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark Seericeiceice
52% · 52 games45% · 37 games
LifestealerinYourdreaM
Lifestealer
Tusk
TuskDJ
51% · 324 games50% · 123 games
Primal Beastdb-
Primal Beast
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDuBu
47% · 18 games50% · 259 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
38% · 31 game
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed28:7
Bleed Esports 46%Army Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkJaCkky
53% · 144 games47% · 58 games
MorphlinginYourdreaM
Morphling
Enigma
Enigmaiceiceice
54% · 231 game44% · 131 game
PangolierYowe
Pangolier
Alchemist
AlchemistDJ
51% · 46 games54% · 54 games
Broodmotherdb-
Broodmother
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
66% · 28 games39% · 188 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
47% · 18 games
PugnaVarizh
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct11:32
Bleed Esports 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreJaCkky
44% · 25 games54% · 194 games
Templar AssassininYourdreaM
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
Snapfireiceiceice
45% · 163 games51% · 166 games
Keeper of the LightYowe
Keeper of the Light
Tiny
TinyDJ
50% · 368 games51% · 90 games
Tidehunterdb-
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
54% · 35 games43% · 92 games
EarthshakerJhocam
Earthshaker
64% · 49 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3