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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 5 games
80%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 272 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
193 picks · 80 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
189 picks · 213 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
184 picks · 394 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
169 picks · 170 bans
59%
Sven
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
162 picks · 219 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
159 picks · 255 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total61% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
Bleed Esports 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 30:45.
Game 2prediction correct17:28
Bleed Esports 39%Blacklist International 61%
The model gave 61% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 61%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2