DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Darlengwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Bleed Esports
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Taiga · 3 games
Dark Willow
DJ · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
DuBu · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
Tusk
DJ · 3 games
Clockwerk
DuBu · 2 games
Gyrocopter
JaCkky · 2 games
Darleng
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
257 picks · 436 bans
Phoenix
233 picks · 363 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
218 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
210 picks · 196 bans
Dark Willow
209 picks · 99 bans
Treant Protector
189 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Darleng
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:20
Bleed Esports 66%Darleng 34%
The model gave 66% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Darleng in 42:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 66%
Series resultDarleng 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1