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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
JaCkky · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
DJ · 5 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
DJ · 5 games
80%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Mikoto · 4 games
75%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Poloson · 4 games
75%

IHC Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 8 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ace12 · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
eleven · 5 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Sancity · 5 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
Se · 5 games
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
339 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 529 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
319 picks · 476 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
307 picks · 239 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 176 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
296 picks · 565 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 253 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Bleed Esports 53%IHC Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 19:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
52% · 191 game55% · 215 games
MedusaFortuneSoul
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
52% · 179 games51% · 257 games
Timbersaweleven
Timbersaw
Windranger
Windrangerzeal
48% · 196 games45% · 190 games
Vengeful SpiritSe
Vengeful Spirit
Doom
DoomDJ
48% · 328 games47% · 386 games
Rubickace12
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPoloson
54% · 154 games
Game 2prediction correct11:1
Bleed Esports 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 11:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
49% · 64 games41% · 127 games
LunaFortuneSoul
Luna
Brewmaster
Brewmasterzeal
53% · 64 games52% · 173 games
Timbersaweleven
Timbersaw
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
52% · 157 games51% · 149 games
Shadow Demonace12
Shadow Demon
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDJ
58% · 66 games45% · 98 games
WindrangerSe
Windranger
Lion
LionPoloson
51% · 196 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 55%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2