Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Block Roar Esportsloss 0:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Pacific esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Block Roar Esports
Nature's Prophetsignature
NaoG · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
NaoG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
NaoG · 1 game
Pacific esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
749 picks · 607 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 470 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1008 bans
Tiny
406 picks · 377 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 950 bans
Doom
393 picks · 621 bans
Undying
386 picks · 604 bans
Mirana
383 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Block Roar Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Block Roar Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Block Roar Esports 59%Pacific esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Block Roar Esports — the game was taken by Pacific esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlock Roar Esports · 59%
Series resultPacific esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1