ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Blue Submarinewin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
4Piratesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
4Pirates
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 2 games
Terrorblade
Otaker · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 1 game
Lion
ariel · 1 game
Muerta
ariel · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
432 picks · 556 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 380 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 442 bans
Luna
316 picks · 374 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 578 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 149 bans
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 344 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Blue Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:14
Blue Submarine 62%4Pirates 38%
The model gave 62% on Blue Submarine — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlue Submarine · 62%
Series resultBlue Submarine 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 1