ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blue Submarineloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 21 game
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
428 picks · 541 bans
Clockwerk
374 picks · 371 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 439 bans
Luna
313 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
Dark Willow
276 picks · 145 bans
Dragon Knight
262 picks · 341 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Blue Submarine 25%Natus Vincere Junior 75%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:54.
Game 2prediction correct26:36
Blue Submarine 25%Natus Vincere Junior 75%
The model gave 75% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 75%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2