IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Болгарияwin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Грузияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Грузия
Lycanoften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
lil pleb · 1 game
Spirit Breaker
bzm · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
328 picks · 217 bans
Undying
304 picks · 542 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
237 picks · 144 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 274 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 715 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Грузия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Болгария
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:46
Болгария 60%Грузия 40%
The model gave 60% on Болгария — the game was taken by Грузия in 31:21.
Game 2prediction missed10:30
Болгария 60%Грузия 40%
The model gave 60% on Болгария — the game was taken by Грузия in 21:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteБолгария · 60%
Series resultБолгария 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2