FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionBVbon voyageloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
bon voyage
Elder Titan
Nagato · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Snapfire
Krinzhik · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 1 game
Pipsqueak+4
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 2 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 2 games
Meepooften banned
Nande · 2 games
Snapfire
Kaori · 2 games
Tusk
Kaori · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Warlock
Kaori · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 193 bans
Puck
295 picks · 663 bans
Dark Willow
261 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 253 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 618 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 516 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
244 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 78%
Hero pool strength59% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:45
bon voyage 28%Pipsqueak+4 72%
The model gave 72% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenRetsu
Shadow FiendNande
EarthshakerG.T.I
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Dark WillowKrinzhik
PhoenixKaori
56% · 76 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
65% · 103 games
Naga SirenKidaro
Game 2prediction correct10:35
bon voyage 29%Pipsqueak+4 71%
The model gave 71% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 18:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenRetsu
Queen of Painxn丶e
Ember SpiritG.T.I
Faceless VoidNande
PugnaKrinzhik
AxePalantimos
49% · 80 games
HoodwinkKaori
47% · 94 games
SilencerKidaro
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 84%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2