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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
87%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 15 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Matthew · 14 games
64%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrider
Q · 13 games
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Jabz · 13 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 11 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
436 picks · 578 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
374 picks · 391 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 387 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 577 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
287 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 326 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
260 picks · 769 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total63% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:19
BOOM Esports 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
53% · 408 games51% · 283 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingFbz
51% · 241 game48% · 356 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMac
56% · 94 games45% · 206 games
DoomJabz
Doom
Muerta
MuertaTims
43% · 172 games48% · 303 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderJaunuel
52% · 474 games53% · 241 game
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed24:13
BOOM Esports 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
45% · 198 games46% · 149 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
48% · 165 games47% · 247 games
TimbersawAbed
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
49% · 94 games50% · 99 games
BristlebackJabz
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJaunuel
62% · 167 games51% · 284 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Lion
LionTims
48% · 190 games57% · 35 games
Ogre MagiMalady
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed23:12
BOOM Esports 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackJaCkky
45% · 113 games56% · 204 games
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
49% · 264 games48% · 180 games
InvokerAbed
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 386 games52% · 194 games
RazorJabz
Razor
Muerta
MuertaTims
48% · 134 games47% · 338 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
52% · 340 games53% · 321 game
Crystal MaidenMalady
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 63%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3