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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Aurora Gamingloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 22 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 18 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
56%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 15 games
87%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 15 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Parker · 15 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
60%

Aurora Gaming

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Q · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Q · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Q · 12 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
466 picks · 629 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
399 picks · 444 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
339 picks · 423 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 489 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 622 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 365 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
280 picks · 280 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
BOOM Esports 43%Aurora Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
45% · 208 games58% · 151 game
AlchemistTA2000
Alchemist
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
42% · 126 games54% · 200 games
TimbersawJabz
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
52% · 183 games54% · 104 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Silencer
SilencerJaunuel
41% · 14 games50% · 20 games
TinkerMalady
Tinker
Muerta
MuertaTims
44% · 143 games53% · 199 games
Dark WillowQ
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct9:21
BOOM Esports 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingJaCkky
47% · 216 games50% · 168 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierMac
52% · 315 games48% · 289 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
54% · 138 games52% · 125 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
50% · 208 games49% · 161 game
MuertaQ
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
49% · 303 games49% · 437 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed29:11
BOOM Esports 44%Aurora Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistJaCkky
54% · 239 games52% · 254 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
57% · 69 games55% · 188 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMac
47% · 449 games44% · 183 games
BeastmasterJabz
Beastmaster
Sniper
SniperTims
52% · 128 games48% · 119 games
PugnaQ
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorJaunuel
48% · 126 games42% · 267 games
ClockwerkMalady
Clockwerk
Game 4prediction missed28:19
BOOM Esports 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
48% · 166 games48% · 247 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
46% · 75 games50% · 213 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritMac
53% · 152 games48% · 94 games
TerrorbladeJabz
Terrorblade
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenJaunuel
55% · 419 games51% · 277 games
BatriderQ
Batrider
Lion
LionTims
53% · 294 games48% · 275 games
EnchantressMalady
Enchantress
Game 5prediction missed34:25
BOOM Esports 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetJaCkky
51% · 125 games48% · 332 games
Dragon KnightTA2000
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierMac
50% · 283 games53% · 144 games
TerrorbladeJabz
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusFbz
49% · 130 games48% · 143 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
50% · 144 games49% · 142 games
MuertaQ
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressJaunuel
50% · 263 games51% · 184 games
PugnaMalady
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 60%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5