PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 21 game
Marssignature
Fbz · 20 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 19 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
Bane
Skem · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
661 picks · 482 bans
Puck
466 picks · 971 bans
Dawnbreaker
384 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 189 bans
Marci
344 picks · 665 bans
Mars
339 picks · 559 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 426 bans
Monkey King
304 picks · 623 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength61% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:32
BOOM Esports 74%beastcoast 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 52:42.
Game 2prediction missed16:32
BOOM Esports 74%beastcoast 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 34:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 74%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2