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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Panda · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Pakazs · 7 games
71%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
409 picks · 658 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 617 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 358 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 312 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 798 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 420 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 356 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 564 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:45
BOOM Esports 69%beastcoast 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 59:38.
Game 2prediction correct30:24
BOOM Esports 69%beastcoast 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 45:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2