Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tusk
xNova · 12 games
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 8 games
Miranasignature
Xepher · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Natsumi · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
xNova · 8 games
Rubick
Xepher · 7 games
Tiny
Yopaj · 7 games
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
776 picks · 586 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 377 bans
Nature's Prophet
414 picks · 692 bans
Beastmaster
410 picks · 955 bans
Undying
402 picks · 588 bans
Snapfire
389 picks · 289 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 207 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)82% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:21
BOOM Esports 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:26.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
BOOM Esports 68%Blacklist International 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 50:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 68%
Series resultBlacklist International 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2