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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
100%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Xepher · 5 games
20%

Bleed Esports

Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DJ · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
44%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 9 games
89%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
451 picks · 217 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 668 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 614 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
336 picks · 708 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
314 picks · 523 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 644 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total56% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
BOOM Esports 51%Bleed Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
50% · 85 games49% · 45 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomWs
49% · 135 games54% · 34 games
Night Stalkericeiceice
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckYopaj
44% · 75 games57% · 157 games
Keeper of the LightDJ
Keeper of the Light
Lion
LionBoBoKa
42% · 29 games52% · 170 games
Treant ProtectorDuBu
Treant Protector
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
47% · 82 games
Game 2prediction missed43:35
BOOM Esports 52%Bleed Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 1:12:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreNatsumi
45% · 50 games48% · 173 games
Drow RangerJaCkky
Drow Ranger
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
46% · 65 games51% · 60 games
Razoriceiceice
Razor
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
54% · 201 game55% · 191 game
Keeper of the LightDJ
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickBoBoKa
48% · 396 games57% · 364 games
ClockwerkDuBu
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
40% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 56%
Series resultBleed Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2