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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Bruv123loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 20 games
35%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Matthew · 16 games
50%

Bruv123

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
423 · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Bob · 8 games
88%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Se · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Se · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
seimei · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 5 games
80%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 453 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
322 picks · 311 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 368 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 415 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 466 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
292 picks · 510 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Bruv123
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:39
BOOM Esports 62%Bruv123 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMac
53% · 43 games50% · 129 games
Razor423
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
48% · 183 games56% · 158 games
PuckBob
Puck
Viper
ViperFbz
49% · 44 games43% · 193 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Lion
LionTims
50% · 139 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDJ
53% · 71 game
Game 2prediction missed10:34
BOOM Esports 60%Bruv123 40%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Bruv123 in 34:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaGhost
49% · 133 games49% · 275 games
Luna423
Luna
Pangolier
PangolierMac
46% · 192 games42% · 265 games
KunkkaBob
Kunkka
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
60% · 45 games64% · 76 games
OmniknightSe
Omniknight
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDJ
53% · 93 games
Rubick
RubickTims
42% · 153 games
Game 3prediction correct26:3
BOOM Esports 57%Bruv123 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistGhost
46% · 87 games50% · 254 games
Morphling423
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
52% · 151 game49% · 343 games
PangolierBob
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
48% · 171 game57% · 75 games
OmniknightSe
Omniknight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTims
49% · 111 games
Enchantress
EnchantressDJ
46% · 152 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3