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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Caterpillarloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 21 game
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 17 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Matthew · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 14 games
43%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 14 games
64%

Caterpillar

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
boombell · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
tnt · 1 game
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
423 picks · 536 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
373 picks · 363 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 437 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 368 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 567 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
275 picks · 144 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 340 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
256 picks · 955 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Caterpillar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:20
BOOM Esports 76%Caterpillar 24%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Caterpillar in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistJaCkky
54% · 98 games50% · 194 games
MagnusFearless
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
55% · 122 games45% · 134 games
Muertatnt
Muerta
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMac
54% · 133 games44% · 277 games
Tuskboombell
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaJaunuel
54% · 123 games
Rubick
RubickTims
53% · 129 games
Game 2prediction correct27:24
BOOM Esports 76%Caterpillar 24%
The model gave 76% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackFbz
47% · 76 games47% · 401 game
PangolierFearless
Pangolier
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendJaCkky
47% · 71 game53% · 154 games
Muertatnt
Muerta
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMac
53% · 180 games52% · 73 games
Omniknightboombell
Omniknight
Lion
LionTims
53% · 129 games
Tusk
TuskJaunuel
48% · 172 games
Game 3prediction correct38:39
BOOM Esports 75%Caterpillar 25%
The model gave 75% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:20:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
48% · 117 games50% · 207 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Luna
LunaJaCkky
54% · 179 games48% · 143 games
Muertatnt
Muerta
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMac
54% · 165 games52% · 315 games
Hoodwinkboombell
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneTims
51% · 37 games
Tusk
TuskJaunuel
43% · 167 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 90%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3