FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Lionsignature
Tims · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Jaunuel · 16 games
Earthshaker
Mac · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Tims · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 14 games
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 14 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Mac · 13 games
Execration
Marcioften banned
Tino- · 11 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 9 games
Lichsignature
cml · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
472 picks · 606 bans
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
Batrider
454 picks · 565 bans
Clockwerk
433 picks · 541 bans
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 484 bans
Magnus
403 picks · 901 bans
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total71% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
BOOM Esports 62%Execration 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightJaCkky
Night StalkerAkashi
MagnusMac
IoTino-
EnigmaFbz
MarciShanks
PhoenixJaunuel
Disruptorcml
RikiTims
Game 2prediction correct27:13
BOOM Esports 64%Execration 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingJaCkky
Phantom AssassinAkashi
DoomFbz
Sand KingTino-
EarthshakerMac
BatriderShanks
Nyx AssassinTims
Pugnacml
PhoenixJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 71%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2