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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
27%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 13 games
69%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 28 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 18 games
78%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
485 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 562 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 163 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
387 picks · 340 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
372 picks · 766 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 561 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
BOOM Esports 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:01:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
48% · 154 games55% · 119 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
49% · 235 games54% · 40 games
SlardarAce
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanda
39% · 70 games54% · 140 games
PuckQuinn
Puck
51% · 45 games
BaneSeleri
Bane
53% · 115 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction missed38:18
BOOM Esports 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
59% · 63 games52% · 83 games
Templar AssassinQuinn
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
47% · 81 game47% · 16 games
Clinkzdyrachyo
Clinkz
Phoenix
PhoenixPanda
41% · 99 games42% · 21 game
AxeAce
Axe
51% · 68 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
57% · 55 games
ClockwerkSeleri
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 74%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2