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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:3
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Heroicwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Sacred · 7 games
43%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 12 games
67%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 7 games
57%
Alchemist
Alchemist
K1 · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Scofield · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 409 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 435 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 207 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 588 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
210 picks · 184 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
210 picks · 298 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
206 picks · 305 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:34
BOOM Esports 47%Heroic 53%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 55:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPakazs
53% · 86 games56% · 60 games
Wraith KingK1
Wraith King
Doom
DoomILICH-
53% · 294 games46% · 22 games
Meepo4nalog
Meepo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
50% · 93 games43% · 164 games
Ember SpiritDavai
Ember Spirit
49% · 94 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
48% · 133 games
UndyingKJ
Undying
Game 2prediction correct6:22
BOOM Esports 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingPakazs
50% · 98 games36% · 26 games
AbaddonK1
Abaddon
Tidehunter
TidehunterILICH-
49% · 109 games48% · 118 games
Primal Beast4nalog
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanda
61% · 88 games43% · 62 games
MarsDavai
Mars
52% · 48 games
GrimstrokeKJ
Grimstroke
53% · 41 game
Vengeful SpiritScofield
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct17:28
BOOM Esports 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomILICH-
44% · 255 games58% · 88 games
MedusaK1
Medusa
Lifestealer
LifestealerPakazs
47% · 88 games48% · 99 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenPanda
55% · 76 games56% · 115 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
48% · 56 games
Vengeful SpiritKJ
Vengeful Spirit
49% · 61 game
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 52%
Series resultHeroic 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3