BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Tiny
Tims · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
Armel · 14 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Jabz · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
JaCkky · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
Armel · 11 games
Silenceroften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
Miranasignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
InterActive Philippines
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Nishababy · 3 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Leshrac
Nishababy · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
318 picks · 787 bans
Disruptor
317 picks · 293 bans
Pugna
273 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
Dawnbreaker
269 picks · 743 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 128 bans
Tusk
265 picks · 248 bans
Marci
261 picks · 769 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
BOOM Esports 80%InterActive Philippines 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
MarsKimizu
PuckSancity
Dragon KnightNishababy
DawnbreakerJabz
EnchantressNARMAN
TuskJhocam
Game 2prediction correct39:14
BOOM Esports 80%InterActive Philippines 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJaCkky
PuckNishababy
Shadow FiendSancity
LycanKimizu
MarsJabz
PugnaNARMAN
HoodwinkJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 94%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2