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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lavaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%

Lava

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
JP · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 404 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 628 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 200 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
219 picks · 111 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
BOOM Esports 78%Lava 22%
The model gave 78% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
BOOM Esports 78%Lava 22%
The model gave 78% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 78%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2