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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M Yloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 18 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 12 games
58%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Fbz · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Hyde · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Hyde · 8 games
75%

M Y

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Beebie · 4 games
25%
Disruptor
Disruptor
LionaX · 3 games
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
MyPro · 3 games
33%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
KNP · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
LionaX · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
LionaX · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
LionaX · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 173 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
346 picks · 125 bans
47%
Lina
Lina
267 picks · 475 bans
52%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
57%
Luna
Luna
252 picks · 351 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
246 picks · 419 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
240 picks · 303 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
236 picks · 328 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:15
BOOM Esports 74%M Y 26%
The model gave 74% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPalos
52% · 56 games47% · 25 games
Naga SirenKNP
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckYopaj
51% · 203 games48% · 167 games
Dragon KnightBeebie
Dragon Knight
Weaver
WeaverFbz
49% · 38 games46% · 155 games
RubickMyPro
Rubick
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkem
58% · 68 games53% · 94 games
Shadow DemonLionaX
Shadow Demon
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritHyde
46% · 76 games
Game 2prediction correct44:16
BOOM Esports 73%M Y 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyPalos
46% · 42 games45% · 73 games
BloodseekerKNP
Bloodseeker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
52% · 96 games44% · 74 games
Queen of PainBeebie
Queen of Pain
Weaver
WeaverSkem
48% · 35 games59% · 123 games
TidehunterMyPro
Tidehunter
Windranger
WindrangerYopaj
45% · 32 games47% · 11 games
BaneLionaX
Bane
Tusk
TuskHyde
54% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2