ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 7 games
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Xepher · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Fbz · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Natsumi · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 4 games
Disruptor
xNova · 4 games
Mad Kings
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 10 games
Disruptorsignature
Gardick · 10 games
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
DaaD- · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
Vitaly · 8 games
Svenoften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
223 picks · 272 bans
Dark Willow
203 picks · 90 bans
Grimstroke
202 picks · 232 bans
Pangolier
185 picks · 399 bans
Phoenix
174 picks · 232 bans
Sven
170 picks · 250 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 171 bans
Treant Protector
166 picks · 377 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
BOOM Esports 61%Mad Kings 39%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerPakazs
SvenAdrx
NecrophosSacred
LinaMr.Jeans
PugnaMatthew
PhoenixSmAsH
OracleMjz
Earth SpiritGenek
40% · 31 game
GrimstrokeYadomi
Game 2prediction missed14:33
BOOM Esports 59%Mad Kings 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightPakazs
BloodseekerAdrx
TidehunterSacred
LeshracMr.Jeans
Nature's ProphetMatthew
DawnbreakerSmAsH
Vengeful SpiritMjz
MuertaYadomi
49% · 80 games
InvokerGenek
Game 3prediction missed26:33
BOOM Esports 58%Mad Kings 42%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidPakazs
BrewmasterSmAsH
AxeSacred
MuertaAdrx
Dark WillowMatthew
Ember SpiritMr.Jeans
Ancient ApparitionMjz
InvokerGenek
58% · 69 games
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 69%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3