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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 24 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
29%
Sven
Sven
Pakazs · 14 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 13 games
46%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 46 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 39 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 37 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 32 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 32 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 798 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
362 picks · 365 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
352 picks · 253 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
344 picks · 729 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 466 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
308 picks · 371 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 506 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
300 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:24
BOOM Esports 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterParker
48% · 334 games46% · 223 games
Dragon KnightUlnit
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSacred
48% · 183 games51% · 48 games
DazzleSupream^
Dazzle
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
48% · 202 games50% · 226 games
BrewmasterForce
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
55% · 64 games49% · 245 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Weaver
WeaverMatthew
57% · 254 games49% · 295 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed35:22
BOOM Esports 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingParker
47% · 214 games49% · 93 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Mars
MarsDarkMago
49% · 195 games53% · 115 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingSacred
52% · 73 games59% · 96 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Snapfire
SnapfireMatthew
41% · 224 games56% · 236 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroYadomi
48% · 120 games47% · 286 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed22:21
BOOM Esports 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingParker
53% · 281 game48% · 69 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Sand King
Sand KingDarkMago
50% · 76 games48% · 134 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Doom
DoomSacred
54% · 222 games53% · 210 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroMatthew
44% · 124 games56% · 164 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Warlock
WarlockYadomi
46% · 59 games47% · 185 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 58%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3