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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pacific esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ws · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 6 games
17%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Mjz · 5 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
xNova · 5 games
60%

Pacific esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 423 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 401 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
224 picks · 614 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
224 picks · 203 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
222 picks · 193 bans
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 100 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 298 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:13
BOOM Esports 71%Pacific esports 29%
The model gave 71% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonPakazs
67% · 26 games44% · 91 game
Ember SpiritMingatte
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerILICH-
48% · 46 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePanda
52% · 19 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 85%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1