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OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ragdollwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Lion
Lion
Hyde · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 15 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Skem · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 14 games
57%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 12 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 12 games
67%

Ragdoll

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
337 picks · 178 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
285 picks · 101 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
271 picks · 414 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
269 picks · 530 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 366 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
238 picks · 336 bans
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
237 picks · 245 bans
59%
Abaddon
Abaddon
215 picks · 240 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:36
BOOM Esports 80%Ragdoll 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 49:20.
Game 2prediction correct11:18
BOOM Esports 80%Ragdoll 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 26:32.
Game 3prediction missed41:32
BOOM Esports 80%Ragdoll 20%
The model gave 80% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Ragdoll in 57:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 80%
Series resultRagdoll 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3