Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RSGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 17 games
Weaversignature
Skem · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Miranasignature
Tims · 16 games
Bane
Skem · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 13 games
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 440 bans
Mars
459 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 539 bans
Bane
409 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 594 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 570 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:6
BOOM Esports 57%RSG 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:17.
Game 2prediction correct35:28
BOOM Esports 57%RSG 43%
The model gave 57% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 57%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2