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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 15 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
27%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
80%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
40%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
484 picks · 214 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 632 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 736 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 557 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
395 picks · 159 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
386 picks · 334 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 753 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 552 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:16
BOOM Esports 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPakazs
41% · 198 games62% · 97 games
Naga SirenArteezy
Naga Siren
Mars
MarsSacred
55% · 199 games45% · 96 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Bane
BanePanda
40% · 61 game52% · 168 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
61% · 97 games
DisruptorGH
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed18:10
BOOM Esports 45%Shopify Rebellion 55%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackPakazs
61% · 22 games47% · 53 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSacred
42% · 117 games56% · 44 games
WeaverArteezy
Weaver
Io
IoPanda
54% · 70 games56% · 38 games
EnigmaSabeRLight-
Enigma
44% · 74 games
TinyGH
Tiny
Game 3prediction missed21:16
BOOM Esports 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
54% · 198 games48% · 83 games
Templar AssassinSumaiL
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSacred
50% · 140 games52% · 86 games
Faceless VoidArteezy
Faceless Void
Bane
BanePanda
50% · 61 game52% · 146 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
42% · 84 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3