Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
T1win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Hyde · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 2 games
Bloodseeker
Fbz · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Khezcute · 1 game
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
174 picks · 398 bans
Mars
169 picks · 305 bans
Earth Spirit
158 picks · 125 bans
Void Spirit
153 picks · 214 bans
Phoenix
132 picks · 150 bans
Keeper of the Light
117 picks · 208 bans
Nyx Assassin
115 picks · 395 bans
Rubick
115 picks · 61 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
BOOM Esports 63%T1 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 56:38.
Game 2prediction correct28:16
BOOM Esports 63%T1 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 38:20.
Game 3prediction missed9:24
BOOM Esports 63%T1 37%
The model gave 63% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by T1 in 41:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 63%
Series resultT1 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3